Modelo para prever evolução do preço de commodities minerais com o tempo: Aplicação para o preço das Terras-Raras / Model for predicting mineral commodity price evolution over time: Application to the price of Rare Earths
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv6n9-400Keywords:
commodities, Lotka-Volterra, minério, preços, investimento, terras-raras.Abstract
Um modelo para prever a evolução do preço de commodities com o tempo é apresentado. O modelo baseia-se nas equações do modelo predador-presa, denominadas equações de Lotke-Volterra. O modelo ajuda a prever o momento correto para investimentos. Uma característica importante do modelo é prever a ocorrência de bolhas. A possibilidade de detecção de bolhas pode evitar a ocorrência de crises, ou pelo menos amenizar essas crises. O modelo é proposto para commodities minerais, mas pode ser aplicado para commodities agrícolas e também para a economia em geral.
References
Lotka, A.J., “Contribution to the Theory of Periodic Reaction”, J. Phys. Chem., 14 (3), pp 271–274 (1910).
Volterra, V., Variations and fluctuations of the number of individuals in animal species living together in Animal Ecology, Chapman, R.N. (ed), McGraw–Hill, (1931).
Mimmo Ianneli, Andrea Pugliesi. An Introduction to Mathematical Population Dynamics: Along the trail of Volterra and Lotka [1 ed.], 2014.
S. Ahmad, L. M. Stamova. Lotka-Volterra and Related Systems: Recent Developments in Population Dynamics. 2013.
Y. Takeuchi. Global Dynamical Properties of Lotka-Volterra Systems. 1996.
http://book.xogeny.com/behavior/equations/population/
http://book.xogeny.com/components/components/population/#population-components
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2011/05/oil-prices-charlie-sheen-electric-car
https://inflationdata.com/articles/charts/inflation-adjusted-oil-prices-chart/
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore
https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths/mcs-2017-raree.pdf
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/business/global/23rare.html
http://www2.ifrn.edu.br/ojs/index.php/HOLOS/article/view/3753/1397
http://www2.ifrn.edu.br/ojs/index.php/HOLOS/article/view/4315/pdf
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/30/solar-panel-prices-have-dropped-off-cliff-sunk-into-
ocean-solar-panels-9x-cheaper-than-in-2006/
https://about.bnef.com/blog/scale-up-of-solar-and-wind-puts-existing-coal-gas-at-risk/
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44636
https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2019
https://www.dw.com/en/cheap-solar-energy-prices-explained/a-53590607
https://www.evwind.es/2020/06/25/solar-and-wind-power-now-cheaper-than-coal/75326
M. Lewis. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine. 2010.